Managing the roster

So you've got your seven skilled starters, your kicker, your defense and your six players on the bench. They are all ready to go. Now what?

Between the Draft and Week 1 there are two things to do: check your active and benched roster and check the players that were left behind. In this post we'll consider managing the active roster.

Active v benched

The system has automatically put your best players in the active spots and left your second best players on the bench. But that is the AI, and who trusts skynet? Moving active and benched players around is your right as Head Coach. There are many reasons why you might move players around: like/dislike of a certain player, how the player matches up in real life, how they match up in fantasy, or just a gut feeling.

Let's look at Breesus v Agent P for some inspiration. In the Game Center we can see each teams players, the players projected points and the teams projected points. Game Center projects this game to be a close one, Breesus 127.9 v 125 for Agent P.

Agent P's roster is tight. Kaep is currently her starting QB and her backup QB is Rivers. Kaep's projected score is 25 vs Rivers of 18. According to the AI she should start Kaep. Kaepernick is playing the Dallas Cowboys (@DAL) while Rivers is playing Arizona (@ARI). As an NFL-junkie I know that the Cowboys defense is not rated as highly as the Arizona Cardinals defense, so it is more likely that Kaep will play well against the opposition that Rivers will as he has an 'easier' defense to play against. But how does a non-NFL-junkie now that?

We can open up the Research tab and then look at Fantasy Points Against. This tab gives us the breakdown of how well different positions perform against defenses. Let's look at Cowboys vs QB and Cardinals vs QB. The Cowboys v QB gave up on average 21 points to a QB in 2013. The Cardinals gave up on average 16 points to a QB. I want the higher rating for my QB so I'm going to pick the QB vs the Cowboys.

My crystal ball says that Agent P has the right starting quarterback.

Looking down Agent P's list there is a mismatch. In the Flex spot she has Ryan Matthews with a projection of 6.5. But on her bench she has TY Hilton with a projection of 12.3 and Brian Hartline with a projection of 12.1. She could swap Hilton or Hartline for Matthews and increase her projected score by 6 points, putting her team projection over that of Breesus. Should she?

Using the same logic we can check to see whether Hilton, Hartline or Matthews is the better option.

Matthews first. Fantasy Points Against - Cardinals vs Running Backs has an average of 11.
Hilton plays WR for the Colts and they are playing the Broncos, so FPA has Broncos DEF vs WRs as 24.
Finally, Hartline. WR for Miami versus the Patriots. Patriots DEF vs WRs is 21 points.

On face value you'd select TY Hilton. But, neither Hilton or Hartline are the primary receivers for their teams. Their QBs have other options to throw to. Hilton has to travel to Denver to play there (@DEN) while Miami is playing at home (NE). Does home field advantage make a difference?

AND these stats are for last year. How has the Cardinals, Denver and New England defense changed in the off-season?

Most of these questions don't have answers before Week 1 starts. It's all just guess work, going with the gut and hoping you're right.

In this case the AI projection is most likely where you pin your gut: TY Hilton. Although Denver is a tough match-up Hilton is a star receiver and is more likely to score points than the other two.

My crystal ball recommends Agent P swap Ryan Matthews for TY Hilton.

Let's look at Breesus. As the reigning World Champion Breesus needs as little assistance as possible, but let's analyse his team anyway.

The first thing to notice is there is no QB competition here, only one QB on the roster. Breesus will need one eventually, the NO Saints have a bye in week 6. But Breesus will pick up a QB off Free Agency to cover that gap (I'll cover this in the next post). Provided Breesus stays healthy for the year he is a guaranteed starter week in and week out.

There is one gap in the roster, Anquan Boldin has a projection of 14 compared to the two starting WRs that are 12.6 and 12.7. Is it worth swapping one of them? Pierre Garcon (12.6) is playing the Houston Texans and Randall Cobb (12.7) is playing the Seattle Seahawks.

FPA for the Texans v WRs is 18.6. For the Seahawks its 14.25 and for the Cowboys, who Boldin is playing, it is 24. Based on this you might consider starting Boldin in place of Cobb.

But Breesus knows this is risky - any one of those WRs could be good on the day, any one could suck. In Week 1 it is harder to know than normal.

If Breesus did put Boldin in the game then he is faced with a supporter conundrum: for Boldin to score points he needs his QB to score points as the QB needs to throw him the ball. Boldin's QB is Kaepernick, the starting QB for Agent P. For Breesus to score big off Boldin then Agent P will score big too. Quite the conundrum.

My crystal ball recommends Breesus leave Boldin on the bench and take his chances with Cobb and Garcon. But is that the crystal ball, or my own gut calling the shots?

In the next post I'll cover trading players and the waiver wire.

-D

My crystal ball comes without warranties and any changes made because of its forecast are entirely the decision and responsibility of the head coach.